Who's out for 2001? - The Relegation Shuffle

Keith Mills recently posted this informative message to a Eurovision Mailing list, and with his permission, you can all read his views on the countries likely to be sitting on the substitute's bench next year:

Its now been updated to take account of the scores in the 2000 contest. The table shows the average scores over the past 5 years for each country - this is the official basis for the relegation scheme, which is intended to keep the contest at a manageable length, but still allowing the 30-plus countries to get in now and again.

Countries in Grey boxes are the "Big 4" who pay more into the contest and cannot be relegated whatever their scores. This may upset those in Cyprus & Austria this year - the poor scoring France & Spain should really be out!

Countries in Lavender boxes are most likely out for 2001, but read Keith's report, and bear in mind it was written before the contest.

Country	Total Points '96-00	Times in '96-00	Score 2000	Average Score last 5 shows	It's time for another look at the relegation battle now that everybody has heard and rated all of this year's songs. We already know that next year's Contest will only have 23 countries. The following countries look the most likely to re-appear; Portugal, Poland, Slovenia, Bosnia and Lithuania. The following countries should also be considered; Hungary, Greece and Slovakia (who all opted out of this year's event, but may come back next year) and Belarus (which is joining the list of "passive participants" for the first time). Italy have reportedly declined to enter in 2001. For the sake of this exercise, I'll assume that only five countries not competing this year enter next year's event, which means that six of this year's participants will be relegated. I'll also assume that the points required remain at the same level as last year, though it could be argued that this may increase. Four countries look like certainties for relegation; Switzerland who need over 160 points, Finland (110), Romania (88) and Macedonia (78) will almost certainly not be back in 2001. This leaves (at least) two relegation places needing to be filled. If there was no "Big 4" rule, it would be easy to fill these two positions as both Spain who would require 100 points and France (105) are unlikely to have qualified based on their average points. However as these countries have qualified due to their perceived importance to the Contest, this means that two other countries from a list of five, will take their place in the relegation battle. The easiest task in qualifying belongs to Belgium, who probably would survive if they score six points. However many of the polls have them close to the bottom, and it is not inconceivable that Belgium may be the surprise causalities in this year's race. Chances of surviving 50/50. Another easy target is the 11 points which are required by Turkey. If 2000 follows the trends of the previous three years, the German televote should ensure that Turkey just about survives once again. I'd rate their chances at 90%, if only six countries are relegated, but if a seventh country goes down, then Turkey are in deep trouble. Another country looking likely to miss on 2001 is Cyprus. While the target of 26 points is quite low, the polls are showing Cyprus quite low down, and without their perennial friends on the Athens jury, I'd only rate Cyprus's chances at 20%. Two of Eurovision oldest competitors are also struggling to return in 2001. Austria needs 43 points and Denmark 45 to avoid relegation. Performing last should help Austria survive, but Denmark's performance in the polls suggest that they might struggle. I'd rate Austria as a 70/30 and Denmark a 50/50 to come back next year. [Ed: Of course nobody expected Denmark to win - fans actually rated it quite low] So my predictions; if only six countries go down, Switzerland, Finland, Romania and Macedonia will be joined by Cyprus and Belgium. If a 7th country goes down, then Denmark or Turkey could be in trouble. [Keith is mostly right, but it looks like Austria will be out before Belgium, and Denmark is certainly in!]
Latvia	136	1	136	136
United Kingdom	536	5	28	107
Ireland	493	5	92	99
Denmark	291	3	195	97
Russia	188	2	155	94
Israel	272	3	7	91
Sweden	440	5	88	88
Germany	344	4	96	86
Malta	404	5	73	81
Croatia	402	5	70	80
Estonia	400	5	98	80
Netherlands	344	5	40	69
Iceland	260	4	45	65
Norway	285	5	57	57
Turkey	283	5	59	57
Belgium	184	4	2	46
Austria	179	4	34	45
Cyprus	217	5	8	43
Spain	153	5	18	31
France	135	5	5	27
FYR Macedonia	45	2	29	23
Finland	49	3	18	16
Romania	31	2	25	16
Switzerland	41	4	14	10

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